2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions

With the Golden Globes now out of the way and the winners more or less settled as to who might be primed for Oscar glory from such wins it is a perfect time to predict who the Academy of Motion Pictures and Sciences will honor with nominations this Thursday. Yes, nominations for the 88th annual Academy Awards will be announced this Thursday, January 14th at 5:30 a.m. PST (13:30 UTC) (8:30 a.m. EST) at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater and we are here today to simply predict who might fall into the major categories. While I certainly plan to post my predictions for who I think might win in these respective categories prior to the awards ceremony on February 28th, that is not the competition we will be debating today. Today, it is more about which nine or ten movies will make the cut in the best picture category, will Michael Keaton get a best actor nom or will he possibly compete against Mark Ruffalo in the supporting actor category for Spotlight and so on and so forth. There is a lot of strong competition going on this year as last nights Globe winners highlighted the potential of both The Revenant and The Martian while previous front-runners, Spotlight and The Big Short were shut out. That doesn't mean too much when compared to where the Oscars will take things (though I think Brie Larson's win for Room and Sylvester Stallone's win for Creed both bode well for their Oscar chances), but the more interesting races will be that of if the Picture/Director categories will be a split or if Alejandro González Iñárritu actually stands a chance of repeating his best picture/best director win from last year. It is easier to predict the acting categories based on last nights Globe wins-I could easily see all four of the drama winners repeating at the Oscars next month, but where things get interesting are in the more technical categories as well as the biggest award of the night, best picture. Enough about the dynamics of the possibilities though, let us get on with the predictions...

While there are of course a number of other categories that I don't touch on here such as costume design, make-up and hairstyling, production design, original song, sound editing and mixing, visual effects as well as documentary feature and the short films categories these are my predictions for what are considered more of the major awards. With that said, these aforementioned categories are where the likes of Mad Max: Fury Road will likely flourish sans original song which will undoubtedly go to Sam Smith for his SPECTRE tune despite the fact I'm still rooting for "See You Again," because dammit if Furious 7 doesn't deserve SOMETHING.

Best Picture

Spotlight

The Revenant

Carol

Room

Brooklyn

The Big Short

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

45 Years

Outlier: Bridge of Spies

Best Director

Alejandro González Iñárritu (The Revenant)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Ridley Scott (The Martian)
Todd Haynes (Carol)

Outlier: Adam McKay (The Big Short)

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Steve Carell (The Big Short)

Outlier: Will Smith (Concussion)

Best Supporting Actor

Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Michael Keaton (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Paul Dano (Love & Mercy)

Outlier: Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)

Best Actress

Brie Larson (Room)
Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)

Outlier: Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)

Outlier: Jane Fonda (Youth)

Best Animated Feature

Inside Out

Anomalisa

The Peanuts Movie

Shaun the Sheep Movie

When Marnie Was There

Outlier: The Good Dinosaur

Cinematography

Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant)
John Seale (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Dariusz Wolski (The Martian)
Edward Lachman (Carol)
Roger Deakins (Sicario)

Outlier: Janusz Kamiński (Bridge of Spies) 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Aaron Sorkin (Steve Jobs)
Phyllis Nagy (Carol)
Emma Donoghue (Room)
Nick Hornby (Brooklyn)
Adam McKay & Charles Randolph (The Big Short)

Outlier: Drew Goddard (The Martian)

Best Original Screenplay

Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer (Spotlight)
Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight)
Meg LeFauve (Inside Out)
Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Coen (Bridge of Spies)
Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff (Straight Outta Compton)

Outlier: Amy Schumer (Trainwreck)

Film Editing

Tom McArdle (Spotlight)
Margaret Sixel (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Hank Corwin (The Big Short)
Stephen Mirrione (The Revenant)
Pietro Scalia (The Martian)

Outlier: Claudia Castello, Michael P. Shawver (Creed)

Best Original Score

Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight)
John Williams (Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
Michael Giacchino (Inside Out)
Howard Shore (Spotlight)
Junkie XL (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Outlier: Alexandre Desplat (The Danish Girl)